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Friday, March 9,
2001
U.S. Wireless Web Users To Grow To 96.0
Million
Jupiter Media Metrix, the global leader in market intelligence,
today announced that the number of U.S. wireless Web users
will increase from 4.1 million in 2000 to 96.0 million in
2005. Jupiter analysts, however, warn that the wireless industry
must scale its U.S. plans for mobile interactive services
in accordance with several hurdles that are not expected
to go away anytime soon, including bandwidth limitations,
multiple service platforms and numerous competing service
providers.
"While the number of people in the U.S. logging on
from mobile devices is about to enter a period of rapid growth,
the wireless industry must not underestimate the complexity
of delivering Web services in a highly competitive and fractured
environment," said Seamus McAteer, senior Jupiter analyst. "This
means the industry must hold back on ambitious plans to deliver
mobile multimedia, and instead focus on delivering simple
yet practical interactive services, such as games, short
messaging and location-specific directories - all of which
are viable across multiple networks and narrow bandwidth."
Key Findings:
- Of the 96.0 million U.S. users of the mobile Web in
2005, 74.9 million will be using voice-centric handsets,
7.3 million will be using data-centric handsets, 4.4 million
will be using on-line PDAs, and 9.4 million will be using
off-line PDAs.
- In the U.S., regional carriers will struggle to survive
against national carriers, and these will likely decrease
in number to three giants within five years. At the same
time, intense competition in the handset sector will yield
carriers a greater degree of control over the platform
for mobile content. Jupiter analysts predict, however,
that carriers in the U.S. will not enjoy the same clout
as their counterparts in the Japanese market, which is
characterized by tight adherence to technology standards
devised by mobile operators.
- Despite the promise of 3G broadband mobile networks,
its services are no near-term reality. Instead, the U.S.
market will be characterized by narrowband connections
and packet data services, which will support economic delivery
of highly interactive applications. While broadband mobile
connections will provide a viable target platform in Japan
within two years, companies focusing on the U.S. or European
markets must wait between four and six years.
- The U.S. rollout of location-based services will take
at least two years because of FCC mandates to provide precise
positioning for 911 callers. However, major European carriers
will begin to promote this capability within the next year
using less-specific location data.
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